Management of saltwater intrusion using 3D numerical modelling: a first for Pacific Island country of Vanuatu.

Small island countries like Vanuatu are facing the brunt of climate change, sea level rise (SLR), tropical cyclones, and limited or declining access to freshwater. The Tagabe coastal aquifer in Port Vila (the capital of Vanuatu) shows the presence of salinity, indicating saltwater intrusion (SWI). This study aims to develop and evaluate effective SWI management strategies for Tagabe coastal aquifer. To manage SWI, the numerical simulation model for the study area was developed using the SEAWAT code. The flow model was developed using MODFLOW and the transport model was developed using MT3DMS. Whereby SEAWAT solved flow and transport equations simultaneously. The model was calibrated, and different scenarios were evaluated for the management of SWI. The SLR was also considered in the model simulations. The results indicated that increased population, pumping rates, and SLR affect the SWI rates. To manage the SWI, we introduced hydraulic barriers like barrier wells and injection wells which effectively managed SWI in Tagabe coastal aquifer. The results from this study are significantly important whereby, the water managers, site owners, and governing bodies can use the management strategies presented in this study to create policies and regulations for managing SWI rates in Port Vila. Additionally, the water industry, private businesses, and investors who wish to extract groundwater from the Tagabe can use this study as a reference for daily or yearly freshwater production rates without the risk of SWI.

Integrating numerical modelling and scenario-based sensitivity analysis for saltwater intrusion management: case study of a complex heterogeneous island aquifer system.

Population growth, industrialisation and increasing agricultural demands have significantly stressed groundwater resources in Pacific Island countries (PICs). Climate change and sea-level rise also affect the groundwater resources in PICs. These anthropogenic and natural factors give rise to saltwater intrusion (SWI), a major growing environmental problem in the PICs. SWI is a highly non-linear process which makes it more complex to manage. However, with the help of numerical modelling, SWI can be monitored, managed and controlled. In the present study, we used an illustrative study area where the hydrogeological parameters and other boundary conditions used are similar to the PICs aquifer systems in Vanuatu. The scenarios include changing the barrier wells, injection wells, recharge, hydraulic head, hydraulic conductivity and grid size. The numerical simulation model of the study area was developed, and different scenarios were tested using SEAWAT modules. Apart from salt, we also modelled leachate and engine oil present in the investigated study area to see how it affects the freshwater wells over time. The scenario-based sensitivity analysis tests indicate that injection wells, recharge and hydraulic conductivities are highly sensitive, and with the proper modification, SWI can be managed or regulated. The sensitivity of grid size showed that the simulated results varied within the 10% range of different gird sizes. Moreover, it was also found that the rise in sea level or coastal heads by 0.3-1 m does not significantly cause further SWI encroachment in aquifers. The results from this study are very crucial in this modern era when freshwater needs in coastal areas, especially PICs, are rapidly increasing, and fresh groundwater resources are declining. The novel outcome presented in this study opens pathways for further detailed modelling and numerical studies in the field of SWI management strategy development and is, therefore, beneficial for policymakers, groundwater modellers and general scientific communities.